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人類滅絕的10種可能
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2017/4/12 15:45:23

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人類滅絕的10種可能

近日，英國(guó)劍橋大學(xué)存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究中心（CESR）公布了人類滅絕的10種可能，并對(duì)它們的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)進(jìn)行了排序。CESR認(rèn)為美國(guó)總統(tǒng)特朗普也可能引發(fā)世界末日，并且認(rèn)為這種可能性居然超過了行星撞地球、氣候變化以及機(jī)器人殺手等威脅。一起來看看世界末日究竟會(huì)以何種方式到來吧！

Artificial Intelligence
人工智能

Humanity faces an uncertain future as technology learns to think for itself and adapt to its environment.
由于科技開始學(xué)習(xí)自我思考并適應(yīng)環(huán)境，人類正面臨著一個(gè)不確定的未來。

Nick Bostrom, an outside adviser to Cambridge University's Study of Existential Risk (CESR), predicts that machines will attain 90 percent of human-level intelligence by 2075.
英國(guó)劍橋大學(xué)存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究中心（CESR）外聘顧問尼克?博斯特羅姆預(yù)言，到2075年機(jī)器的智力水平將達(dá)到人類的90%。

The threat posed to the human race if they developed beyond our understanding and control has been compared to the development of nuclear weapons.
如果機(jī)器的發(fā)展超出我們的理解和掌控，那么其對(duì)于人類的威脅可以與核武器的誕生相提并論。

CESR believe that artificial intelligence could create a multitude of risks that threaten human existence in the near future, as so place it as a very high priority.
CESR認(rèn)為，人工智能在不久的將來可能對(duì)人類生存構(gòu)成眾多威脅，所以將其列為高優(yōu)先級(jí)的威脅。

Bio-hacking
生物黑客

Superbugs capable of everything from curing diseases to mopping up pollution could one day become reality, through synthetic biology.
從治療疾病到清除污染，合成生物學(xué)有朝一日會(huì)讓無所不能的超級(jí)細(xì)菌變成現(xiàn)實(shí)。

But experiments with bio-engineering could have unexpected and extremely dangerous results and are being been given a very high priority by CESR.
但是生物工程試驗(yàn)可能帶來意想不到且極其危險(xiǎn)的后果，而CESR則認(rèn)為其危險(xiǎn)性極高。

As current experiments work with self-replicating micro-organisms, like viruses, there is a high risk that any such material that escaped the lab could cause a global pandemic.
目前，病毒試驗(yàn)等可自我復(fù)制微生物試驗(yàn)可能使此類物質(zhì)從實(shí)驗(yàn)室泄露，這會(huì)引發(fā)全球性疾病，此類情形極有可能發(fā)生。

Killer robots
機(jī)器人殺手

Fully autonomous weapons, also known as 'killer robots,' are quickly moving from the realm of science fiction toward reality.
全自動(dòng)武器也被稱為“機(jī)器人殺手”，它正迅速?gòu)目苹眯≌f走向現(xiàn)實(shí)世界。

Removing humans from the targeting decision would create a dangerous world, with machines making life-and-death determinations outside of human control.
當(dāng)機(jī)器在做出生死決定時(shí)不受人類控制，在決定目標(biāo)時(shí)將人類排除在外，世界將變得非常危險(xiǎn)。

And there are greater fears that killer robots could one day turn against their creators, although CESR feels that this threat is currently a low priority.
而更加讓人擔(dān)心的是機(jī)器人殺手有一天可能會(huì)背叛他們的締造者，不過，CESR認(rèn)為目前機(jī)器人殺手的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)相對(duì)較低。

Nuclear war
核戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)

There are now more than 15,000 nuclear weapons on this planet, but to plunge Earth into a devastating nuclear winter, all it would take is the detonation of 100.
目前，地球上存在的核武器超過15000枚，但是只需要引爆100枚核武器就可以讓地球進(jìn)入災(zāi)難性的核冬天。

While the bombs themselves would cause catastrophic damage, the scientists predicted the ensuing nuclear winter would be just as significant.
雖然核爆炸本身就會(huì)造成災(zāi)難性的破壞，但科學(xué)家預(yù)測(cè)隨之而來的核冬天同樣威力十足。

核冬天理論認(rèn)為：當(dāng)使用大量的核武器，特別是對(duì)城市這樣的易燃目標(biāo)使用核武器，會(huì)讓大量的煙和煤煙進(jìn)入地球的大氣層，這可能導(dǎo)致非常寒冷的天氣。當(dāng)核爆炸時(shí)，巨大的能量將大量的煙塵注入大氣。由于核爆炸所產(chǎn)生的煙塵微粒能在高空停留數(shù)天乃至一年以上，對(duì)太陽(yáng)的可見光輻射有較強(qiáng)吸收力，而對(duì)地面向外的紅外光輻射的吸收力較弱，導(dǎo)致高層大氣升溫，地表溫度下降，使地表呈現(xiàn)出如嚴(yán)寒冬天般的景觀，稱為核冬天。那時(shí)地球會(huì)被塵埃籠罩，95%的生命會(huì)死去。

The CESR rates it as a low to medium risk priority.
CESR將核戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)列為中低等。

Climate change
氣候變化

Concentrations of carbon dioxide, released when fossil fuels are burned, as well as other 'greenhouse gases', have risen at an alarming rate, forming a thick blanket around Earth, trapping excess heat and nudging global temperatures upwards.
化石燃料燃燒釋放的二氧化碳以及其他“溫室氣體”的濃度以驚人的速度增加，厚厚地籠罩在地球周圍、吸收多余熱量、導(dǎo)致全球氣溫上升。

Scientists warn of a tipping point - a temperature beyond which the problem can no longer be dialled back.
科學(xué)家們提醒，溫度超過某個(gè)臨界點(diǎn)問題將無法挽回。

If we reach this point, a runaway greenhouse effect would cause temperatures to soar to several hundred degrees Celsius, boiling the oceans and making life on Earth impossible.
如果氣溫一旦達(dá)到了這個(gè)臨界點(diǎn)，那么失控的溫室效應(yīng)將會(huì)使氣溫飆升到幾百攝氏度，讓海水沸騰，地球上將無法生存。

However the CESR rates climate change as another low to medium risk priority.
不過，CESR也將氣候變化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)列為中低等。

Asteroid impact
小行星撞擊

From time to time Asteroids cross paths with us and, while impacts on the scale of the infamous 6.2-mile (10km) 'dinosaur-destroyer' are rare, an asteroid a fifth the size could spell disaster for civilisation.
雖然小行星時(shí)不時(shí)就會(huì)與地球相交，但是“令恐龍滅絕”的聲名狼藉的小行星直徑有1萬(wàn)米，這種小行星非常罕見，一顆體積僅為其1/5的小行星就能給人類文明帶來一場(chǎng)浩劫。

With energy greater than 10 million Hiroshima bombs, the impact shock would flatten everything within a 186-mile (300km) radius.
小行星撞擊的能量比1000萬(wàn)枚投放在廣島的原子彈還要強(qiáng)，帶來的沖擊將把方圓300公里夷為平地。

However, the CESR rate this as a low risk priority.
然而，CESR認(rèn)為這種情況的可能性較低。

Reality is an illusion
現(xiàn)實(shí)是幻覺

Philosophers have long posed thought experiments to examine the nature the interaction between our internal 'self' and external 'reality', questioning how much we can trust the evidence of our senses.
長(zhǎng)期以來，哲學(xué)家們一直通過思想實(shí)驗(yàn)來檢驗(yàn)人的內(nèi)在“自我”和外在“現(xiàn)實(shí)”之間的相互作用的本質(zhì)，他們對(duì)人類在多大程度上可以相信自己的感官提出了疑問。

While still largely the preserve of science fiction, the idea that the world we experience as 'real' is actually just a simulation is still given serious thought by scientists, philosophers, and even businesses.
科學(xué)家、哲學(xué)家、甚至商界都在認(rèn)真思考這樣一種觀點(diǎn)，即人類認(rèn)為的“真實(shí)”世界實(shí)際上是虛擬的，不過這種觀點(diǎn)基本上仍然停留在科幻小說中。

Whether we will ever be able to determine if this is the case remains a much debated topic, and as such, it is a low area of interest for the CESR.
人類是否能夠確定這一觀點(diǎn)的真實(shí)性仍然是一個(gè)備受爭(zhēng)議的話題，因此，CESR不太重視這種說法。

Food shortages
糧食短缺

Global food shortages will become three times more likely as a result of climate change, according to one report, and the international community needs to be ready to respond to price shocks to prevent civil unrest.
一份報(bào)告稱，由于氣候變化的原因，世界糧食短缺的可能性將翻三倍。而國(guó)際社會(huì)需要做好準(zhǔn)備應(yīng)對(duì)糧價(jià)沖擊，以防動(dòng)蕩。

With the world's population set to rise to nine billion by 2050 from 7.3 billion today, food production will need to increase by more than 60 percent and climate-linked market disruptions could lead to civil unrest, the report said.
報(bào)告稱，到2050年世界人口數(shù)量將從現(xiàn)在的73億增加至90億，糧食產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)因此需要超過60%，而氣候問題導(dǎo)致的市場(chǎng)混亂可能引發(fā)動(dòng)蕩。

This another high priority area for the CESR.
CESR認(rèn)為糧食短缺是另一項(xiàng)可能性很高的威脅。

Particle accelerator
粒子加速器

Another improbable possibility raised as a concern to the future existence of the planet is that supercollider experiments could accidentally destroy planet Earth.
另外一種關(guān)于地球命運(yùn)的不太可能的可能性是超級(jí)對(duì)撞機(jī)實(shí)驗(yàn)可能意外毀滅地球。

大型強(qiáng)子對(duì)撞機(jī)一旦啟動(dòng)，將會(huì)以近光速的速度投放出質(zhì)子與離子束，并將讓此粒子束彼此撞擊?？茖W(xué)家希望這些撞擊事件將告訴我們更多有關(guān)宇宙是如何起源的以及宇宙由什么組成的內(nèi)容。對(duì)撞機(jī)的目的就是要加深人類對(duì)宇宙的了解。但是也有專家擔(dān)心大型強(qiáng)子對(duì)撞機(jī)會(huì)帶來世界末日。

Experts at the CESR rate the risk of this happening as very low.
CESR的專家認(rèn)為這種情況發(fā)生的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)極低。

［eging4 于 2017-4-12 15:46:14 編輯過］ 1111

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